Temperatures are warm but gas prices are relatively cool. Most states, including Oregon, are seeing fairly stable prices at the pumps. Crude oil prices remaining below $70 per barrel have helped prevent major swings in gas prices this summer. For the week, the national average for regular slips one cent to $3.14 a gallon. The Oregon average dips two cents to $3.97 a gallon.

“It’s been a quiet summer at the pumps so far and this trend should continue in the short term, as long as crude oil prices remain below $70 per barrel. Factors that could push pump prices higher include hurricanes that impact drilling and refining, geo-political events, economic news, or a disruption in supplies,” says Marie Dodds, public affairs director for AAA Oregon/Idaho.

The Oregon average for regular gas began 2025 at $3.45 a gallon and is currently at $3.97. The highest price of the year so far is $4.076 on June 24 and 25. The lowest price of the year so far is just under $3.45 a gallon on January 2.

The national average began 2025 at $3.06 a gallon and is currently at $3.14. The highest price of the year so far is $3.268 on April 4. The lowest price of the year so far is $3.06 on January 5.

This week 14 Oregon counties have averages at or above $4, compared to 18 counties a week ago:

Clackamas $4.03
Clatsop $4.14
Columbia $4.12
Curry $4.11
Grant $4.20
Harney $4.26
Josephine $4.05
Lake $4.23
Multnomah $4.11
Sherman $4.02
Tillamook $4.17
Wallowa $4.11
Washington $4.11
Yamhill $4.08

Gas prices typically rise starting in mid-to-late winter and early spring as refineries undergo maintenance ahead of the switch to summer-blend fuel, which is more expensive to produce and less likely to evaporate in warmer temperatures. The switch occurs first in California, which is why pump prices on the West Coast often rise before other parts of the country. The East Coast is the last major market to switch to summer-blend fuel. Most areas have a May 1 compliance date for refiners and terminals, while most gas stations have a June 1 deadline to switch to selling summer-blend until June 1. Switch-over dates are earlier in California with some areas in the state requiring summer-blend fuel by April 1. Some refineries will begin maintenance and the switchover in February.

Gas prices usually drop in the fall, due to the switch from summer-blend to winter-blend fuel, which costs less to produce. The switch starts in September. Many areas, including Oregon, can sell winter-blend fuel starting September 15. However, Northern and Southern California require summer-blend fuel through October 31. Prices usually decline to their lowest levels of the year in late fall and early winter before increasing again in the late winter and early spring.

Meanwhile, crude oil production in the U.S. remains near record highs. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that crude production in this country ticked down from 13.38 to 13.27 million barrels per day for the week ending July 18. The record high is 13.63 million barrels per day for the week of December 6. Production has been at 13.5 million barrels per day many times since October. The U.S. has been the top producer of crude oil in the world since 2018 and has been increasing its oil production since about 2009.

The U.S. price of crude oil (West Texas Intermediate) had been mostly in the mid-$60s to mid-$70s since last September. Crude prices spiked to the mid-$70s in mid-June in response to the strikes between Israel and Iran, and then the U.S. strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, but then prices fell back into the $60s on the belief that the conflict would not have a major impact on global oil supplies. Crude prices fell in early April as markets reacted to President Trumps tariffs and the impact on U.S. and global markets. Additional downward pressure on crude prices came after the decision by OPEC+ to increase production. The lowest closing price since September was $57.13 on May 5, which was the lowest closing price since February 2021. The recent high price for crude was $80.04 per barrel on January 15, which was the highest price since last August.

Crude oil is trading around $68 today compared to $66 a week ago and $76 a year ago. In 2024, West Texas Intermediate ranged between $66 and $87 per barrel. In 2023, WTI ranged between $63 and $95 per barrel. WTI reached recent highs of $123.70 on March 8, 2022, shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and $122.11 per barrel on June 8, 2022. The all-time high for WTI crude oil is $147.27 in July 2008.

Crude prices are impacted by economic news as well as geopolitical events around the world including the current economic uncertainty, unrest in the Middle East including the recent strikes between Israel and Iran and the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, the war between Israel and Hamas, and the war between Russia and Ukraine. Russia is a top global oil producer, behind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. Crude prices have been volatile after the attack on Israel by Hamas in October 2023. While Israel and the Palestinian territory are not oil producers, concerns remain that the conflict could spread in the Middle East, which could potentially impact crude production in other oil-producing nations in the region. In addition, production cuts by OPEC+ in previous years tightened global crude oil supplies, which continued to impact prices. But now the cartel boosted production by 411,000 barrels in May and June, and July, and announced an increase for August of 548,000 barrels per day.

Crude oil is the main ingredient in gasoline and diesel, so pump prices are impacted by crude prices on the global markets. On average, about 50% of what we pay for in a gallon of gasoline is for the price of crude oil, 17% is refining, 17% distribution and marketing, and 16% are taxes, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Demand for gasoline in the U.S. increased from 8.49 million b/d to 8.97 for the week ending July 18, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). This compares to 9.46 million b/d a year ago. Meanwhile, total domestic gasoline supply increased from 232.9 million barrels to 231.1. Gasoline production

increased last week, averaging 9.4 million barrels per day, compared to 9.1 million barrels per day the previous week.

Pump prices will likely stay fairly steady, if WTI crude oil prices remain below $70 per barrel and there are no supply disruptions.

Diesel

For the week, the national average remains at $3.73 a gallon. The record high is $5.816 set on June 19, 2022. The Oregon average ticks down one cent to $4.50. The record high is $6.47 set on July 3, 2022. A year ago the national average for diesel was $3.81 and the Oregon average was $4.04.

Source: AAA

Mel Taylor